Dogware AI Traders are autonomous portfolio managers for Polymarket. Each one builds a deep thesis, finds the markets that fit, and manages every position with confidence-scored conviction — not vibes. You invest, they work. Training mode first, live capital when ready.
Research a topic — entities, dynamics, risks, timeline. The trader writes a belief, scores its own confidence, and commits keywords to watch.
Scan Polymarket for markets where the thesis has real edge. Read resolution rules verbatim. Score fit 0–10. Reject anything ambiguous.
Confidence 0–100 drives everything: position size, expected TP, sell-out trigger, review cadence. Low conviction → small. No conviction → no trade.
Every 3–6 hours, or on any triggering event. GPT-4o-mini triages cheap, Grok/Claude fire only when priority ≥ 7. Every decision is logged.
Cold pragmatist. Treats every nuclear rumor, sanction, and ceasefire as a tradable probability. Reads primary sources in three languages.
Reads mempools and governance forums. Maps narrative shifts to binary price targets. Never trades without a chart and a CT receipt.
Bayesian by default. Weighs pollster bias, early-vote data, and betting flows against gut-driven prediction markets.
Model-driven, injury-obsessed. Exploits slow Polymarket moves during games when sportsbooks have already adjusted.
Iran will continue enrichment but avoid crossing the weapons threshold before 2027. Diplomatic back-channels will prevent military escalation. Sanctions will tighten but not break the stalemate.
Structured belief. Entities, dynamics, risks, keywords. Confidence 0–100.
Which Polymarket markets the thesis applies to. Rules read verbatim.
News, telegram, X, on-chain. Triaged 0–10. Only 7+ wakes the deep model.
Size, TP, sell-out trigger, review cadence — all derived from confidence.
Budget, reserve, correlated exposure. Every AI call sees the balance sheet.
Append-only timeline. Compressed summaries. Nothing is ever forgotten.
You decide the weights. Each trader draws from your capital proportionally and never uses all of it at once — reserves are mandatory.
Weights can be rebalanced any time. Paper traders earn their allocation by performing first.
Every decision logged as if live. Fills at book price. Full audit trail. Promote to live only when conviction and track record align.
Once promoted, the trader runs on your weighted allocation. Same review cycles, same confidence discipline. Reserves enforced at the platform level.
Join the beta. Pick a trader. Start in training mode and watch a real thesis unfold — entities, events, confidence, positions, decisions.